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Last update:20th May 2008 Quick links
Climatic trends in the SW - temperature Climatic trends in the SW - sea level Climatic predictions for the SW Detailed impacts of climate change in the South West Impacts on the natural environment Impacts on the marine environment A more local perspective - Plymouth A more local perspective - Bristol A more local perspective - Cheltenham Changing climate - changing behaviour Action to tackle climate change Recent climate change publications Useful links:SW Climate Change Impacts Programme Animated guide to cilmate change - BBC Defra action to takle climate change Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change |
Climate changeClimate change is the greatest environmental challenge facing the world today. new on this page...
In the South West, 8 of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 1990, with the 1990s being the warmest decade on record. What is climate changeThe Earth would be about 33°C colder if it were not surrounded by gases such as water vapour, carbon dioxide and methane, which trap heat from the sun. However, if the amount of heat-trapping gases increases, less heat can escape back into space, the natural greenhouse effect is enhanced and the Earth gets warmer. An animated guide to climate change is available from the BBC. For about a thousand years before the Industrial Revolution, the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere remained relatively constant. Since then, the concentration of various greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases, has increased. The amount of carbon dioxide, for example, has increased by more than 30% since pre-industrial times and is still increasing at an unprecedented average rate of 0.4% per year. This is mainly due to the combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2001 that this increase comes from human activities, because the changing isotopic composition of the atmospheric carbon dioxide is different from that of fossil origin.The climatic response to these increased greenhouse gas concentrations is complex, but can, to an extent, be predicted using atmosphere and ocean mathematical models. Predictions may also be carried out for possible future scenarios of economic development and anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gas emissions. See sections on releases to air and air, energy and transport for more information on the impact of man's activities. Humans are responsible for climate changeGlobal climate change is "very likely" to have a human cause, an influential group of scientists has concluded. On 2 February 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) adopted the first volume, 'Climate Change 2007: the Physical Science Basis', one of three volumes that forms the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis assesses the current scientific knowledge of the natural and human drivers of climate change, observed changes in climate, the ability of science to attribute changes to different causes, and projections for future climate change. The report was produced by some 600 authors from 40 countries. In 2001, the IPPC said that it was "likely" that human activities lay behind the trends observed at various parts of the planet - meaning between a 66% and 90% probability. Now, scientists are at least 90% certain that human emissions of greenhouse gases rather than natural variations are warming the planet's surface. Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global CO2 increase is primarily due to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while increases in methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture. Key highlights
What are we doing about climate change?The UK is acting now to adapt to climate change and to reduce the risk by reducing our contribution to the causes. Under the Kyoto Protocol, the UK must reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 12.5% below base year levels over the 2008 to 2012 commitment period. In 1997, the UK committed itself beyond to go beyond our Kyoto Protocol target by setting a national goal to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2010. In 2003, the Energy White Paper adopted a longer term goal to put the UK on a path to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by some 60% by 2050, with real progress by 2020. While the UK is on track to meet its Kyoto Protocol target the UK government appreciates that we need to do more to meet our challenging domestic targets. The 2006 UK Climate Change Programme aims to put the UK back on track. Published in March 2006, this report details the policies and measures which the UK is using to cut its emissions of greenhouse gases. It also explains how the UK plans to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Although the UK is on line for meeting greenhouse gas targets set by the Kyoto agreement by 2008–2012 (12.5% below 1990 levels), it is currently unlikely that it will meet its own domestically set target of 20% below 1990 levels by 2010. Despite making carbon dioxide cuts we still need to adapt to the changes in the climate system that are unavoidable, due to past emissions. New Climate Bill& Strategy unveiledGovernment's blueprint for tackling climate change was set out on the 15th March 2007 by Environment Secretary David Miliband. The draft Climate Change Bill, the first of its kind in any country, and accompanying strategy, set out a framework for moving the UK to a low-carbon economy, demonstrating the UK's leadership as progress continues towards establishing a post-2012 global emissions agreement. Key points of the draft bill, published today, include:
The draft bill will be subject to a full public consultation alongside pre-legislative scrutiny in Parliament. The strategy paper sets out how the Climate Change Bill fits into the Government's wider international strategy and a range of future domestic policies to achieve its aims. It argues that all sectors of society will have to contribute to the transition to a low-carbon economy, but that this does not mean a reduction in standards of living. It sets out a vision for how the UK can move to a low carbon economy including:
South West Climate Change DeclarationDownload the South West Climate Change Declaration here. Climate change in the UK and South WestThe following information aims to draw together the evidence of climate change in the South West, where possible, with UK comparisons. The South West Climate Change Impacts Partnership is the definitive resource for news, evidence and information about climate change in the region. South West climate change profile dataThere is a growing amount of information now freely available that can help to pull together a picture of how climate change is affecting an area and to help support local climate change action plans. An example has been pulled together for Cornwall, which could be used as a template for other areas. The Cornwall example currently contains the following data:
All data is sourced, so easily to find for another county or area. Any comments on this collection of data is welcome, email Annette Carr TemperatureRecords indicate that the world is warming. The UK Climate Impacts Programme in 2002 identified that global temperature has risen by about 0.6°C since the beginning of the twentieth century, with about 0.4°C of this warming occurring since the 1970s. The latest research has indicated that because of a rapid warming trend over the past 30 years, the earth is now at its warmest in 12,000 years (Hansen et al., 2006). Preliminary temperature figures for 2006, released today by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia (UEA's Climatic Research Unit), show the mean surface air temperature has continued to demonstrate a warming climate, both around the globe and especially here in the UK. Worldwide, the provisional figures for 2006 using data from January to November, place the year as the sixth warmest year. This is on a record that stretches back to 1850 (the top 10 warmest years have all occurred in the last 12 years) and it could have been warmer but for a cool start due to La Nina. In the UK, the year has been remarkable, with the Central England Temperature series setting a succession of records. Not only have individual months set new records, but more significantly, extended periods have also done so:
2006 is very likely to be the warmest year in terms of Central England Temperatures. The joint warmest years currently are 1990 and 1999, which recorded a mean temperature of 10.63°C and with just over two weeks to the end of the year, the current mean temperature anomaly to 12 December is equivalent to an annual temperature of 10.84°C. Top 10 warmest years: Mean Central England Temperatures and difference from 1961-90 average Top ten warmest years
Source: Met
Office (2006) Trend in mean annual temperature for Exmouth (1860 - 2003) as a departure from the 1961 - 1990 average (10.5C)
Source: Met Office, 2003 Sea levelRising or falling sea level can reshape the world’s coastlines and affect some of the most densely populated areas on Earth. Not surprisingly, scientists want to understand sea level as thoroughly as possible. They have discovered that the ocean’s behavior is not uniform all over the world, neither are the factors that affect sea level. When sea level rises, it can do so for a few reasons. It can rise due to thermal expansion—the tendency of warm water to take up more space than cooler water. It can rise due to the addition of water, for instance from melting glaciers. It can also rise due to changes in salinity; fresh water is less dense than salt water and therefore takes up slightly more space than an equal mass of salt water (NASA, 2006) Information on global sea level rise was published by NASA in June 2006. According to this new research, sea level rose, on average, 3 millimeters (0.1 inches) per year between 1993 and 2005. Researchers attributed about half of that increase to melting ice and the other half to thermal expansion as the ocean absorbs excess energy. Mean global sea level rise 1993 - 2005
Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 metres between 1990 and 2100, primarily as a result of thermal expansion of the oceans, with a secondary but significant input from glacial melt water (SWCCIP, 2003). Sea-level rise in the South West could be the highest in Great Britain, with a rise between 20-80cm by the 2080s, depending on emissions scenarios (UKCIP, 2005). Newlyn (Cornwall) has one of the longest sea level records in the UK and, although fluctuations occur year on year, sea level here was 161mm higher in 2006 than when records began in 1916. Mean wave height from trough to crest has also increased, from 1.8m in 1962 to 2.3m today (Seven Stones Light-vessel). Such changes may adversely affect sea defences, harbours, homes, businesses, infrastructure, maritime heritage as well as natural assets and biodiversity (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, 2006).
Sea level rise and climate change will increase the scale and pace of coastal erosion. Research has shown that 779km of National Trust owned land in the region is at risk from coastal erosion over the next 100 years and 852 hectares at risk of increased flooding. Trust owned land in the South West is the most at risk of coastal erosion in England and Wales and is second only to the East in terms of increased flooding (National Trust, 2005). National Trust-owned coast at risk from erosion and flooding over the next 100 years
Source: National Trust, 2005 See also impacts of climate change on the marine environment Detailed impacts of climate change in the South WestIn terms of rainfall and sunshine, Met Office records show that 2003 was the 4th driest and the 4th sunniest in series for the South West. There is also evidence that UK rainfall patterns are changing. Although there are no long-term trends in total annual precipitation, there is a trend in seasonality. According to the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) in 2002, over the last 30 years winters have been getting warmer and summers drier. During this period the contribution of the most intense rainstorms to total winter precipitation has also increased. The UKCIP in 2002 identified that sea-surface temperatures of UK waters have shown an increase in annual average of approximately 0.6°C over the last 70 to 100 years. This is consistent with the warming observed over land. During the twentieth century global sea level rose by about 1.5 mm per year, due to a number of factors including thermal expansion and melting of land glaciers. The present estimated rate of vertical land movement (the natural ‘see-saw’ effect caused by the compression of land under the weight of ice 20-30,000 years ago) for the South West is 0.6mm per year, giving a regional relative sea level rise of 2.1 mm per year.
Future seasonal climate in the South West
Source: UK Climate Impacts Programme, 2002 Summary of climate changes for the South West by the 2050s
Source: UK Climate Impacts Programme, 2002 Impact on the Natural EnvironmentThe impact of climate change will have a significant impact on the natural environment. Habitats will change and many species will not be able to adapt quickly enough. Native species of flora and fauna could be under real threat. Water resources will also be under increased pressure as demands increase and summers become drier. Nature's calendar - Mapping how biodiversity is responding to a changing climateClimate change will affect not just our woods and forests but all natural environments, and is the biggest threat that the whole human race has yet to face. The Nature's Calendar website is a fantastic resource that not only helps you to understand how climate change is directly affecting our biodiversity, it also allows you to become directly involved in improving our knowledge of what is happening locally. Run by the Woodland Trust and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, this website collects in phenological records (such as timings of flowers, leaves, bird arrivals) that entered by the general public, schools and other organisations based on sightings in gardens or local area. Phenology is the study of the times of recurring natural phenomena especially in relation to climate. It is recording when you heard the first cuckoo or saw the blackthorn blossom, which can then be compared with other records such as temperature to help track how our biodiversity is changing over time. Phenology already provides some of the longest written biological records in Britain. Live maps, trends and data is all available online to help track nature's calendar, such as the first signs of spring or species distribution. Over 15,000 people across the UK are now actively involved with the UK Phenology Network, collecting valuable information on seasonal occurrences in order to help to demonstrate how climate change is affecting our wildlife and habitats. Get involved and register to enter your own records or simply visit the website to find out how biodiversity in your area may be changing.
Habitats and landscapesThe threat to biodiversity from climate change is high. The region is home to national rarities such as Cornish heather, the smooth snake (Britain’s rarest reptile) and other species which are confined to areas such as Dorset heath. Many such species could be lost as they may not be able to migrate or adapt quickly enough to survive. Nearly 20% of England’s ancient woodland is in the South West; this is particularly vulnerable, as many of its characteristic species have poor dispersal and will be unable to migrate. Warmer winters could adversely affect species suited to harsher winter weather, such as the large heath butterfly, which might disappear from the region altogether. Others may be eclipsed locally by new species colonizing the area. Those species at the southern breeding limit of their range are probably most at risk of loss from the region. For example, the golden plover is no longer breeding in the South West due to milder winter temperatures. Many habitats in the South West are fragmented and in effect islands surrounded by farmland, through which many native plant and animal species will be unable to migrate as conditions change. Heritage landscapes, including much of the coast and the region’s archaeological remains, are also vulnerable to increased storm events, changes in soil moisture and flooding. Trees and woodlandA report on the impact of climate change on South West trees and woodland (2004) has been published by Forest Research (an Agency of the Forestry Commission). Key issues raised in this report include: Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (which fertlises photosynthesis):
Species suitability for commercial forestry:
Woodland fires
Biodiversity
Insect pests
Diseases
Woodland mammals
More information and details about the impacts of climate change on the South West's trees and woodland are available in the report. Coastal areas and sea fisheriesAs relative sea levels continue to rise, increased wave heights and potential storminess will become more frequent, bringing further risks of coastal flooding and erosion. This may adversely affect sea defences, harbours, homes, businesses, infrastructure, maritime heritage as well as natural assets and biodiversity. The costs of maintaining and building new coastal defences are likely to be significant. Protecting many coastal assets from erosion may therefore be too costly: in some cases relocation or managed retreat will be the best option. Natural assets such as valued landscapes, archaeological remains, beaches, wetlands, mudflats, salt marshes and dunes may also be lost, together with their flora and fauna. The coastal waters of the South West mark a boundary between the warm southern and cool northern seas. Such conditions create an abundance of species. Fish are particularly sensitive to small changes in temperature, causing changes in distribution at the extremities of their ranges. The ocean’s overall productivity may also be reduced by globally rising temperatures, affecting species across the entire marine food chain. These changes could result in increased pressure on fish stocks with serious consequences for fisheries in the region. The warming of the ocean could result in significant losses of indigenous species to the north and cause the colder water cod populations to fall. There is already evidence that new warmer water southern species are being caught in Cornish waters. Climate change and the marine environmentThe biodiversity and productivity of seas around the UK could already be suffering the consequences of climate change, according to the Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership's 2nd Annual Report Card 2007 - 2008 The Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (including government departments, academics and NGOs) hope that the report will give more people better access to the research, and help them understand the issues surrounding the topic. The 2007 - 2008 Annual Report Card builds upon the evidence base presented in 2006, highlighting key developments and exploring new subject areas (coastal erosion, coastal habitats and air–sea exchanges of heat and water). It brings together scientific understanding from a wider range of research institutes, providing an even more comprehensive assessment of UK marine climate change impacts and highlighting regional variations where possible. As the evidence base continues to build, it is clear that marine climate change is having important impacts on the marine environment and the goods and services it provides. The information presented this year demonstrates the important knock-on effects that climate change can have through the food chain. For example, at the bottom, warming has led to plankton shifts, which have had an impact upon predators such as fish, which then affects seabirds. Key findings include:
Below is a summary of how climate change is already impacting on the marine environment (with varying levels of confidence). More information about future impacts is also available in the Annual Report Card 2007 - 2008. Climate change in the marine environmentOcean climate is largely defined by its temperature, salinity, ocean circulation and the exchange of heat, water and gases (including CO2) with the atmosphere. The functioning of our marine ecosystem is highly dependent on changes to both ocean climate and acidification, whilst storms and waves, sea-level rise and coastal erosion pose clear threats to human life, built structures and shipping.
Climate change impacts on marine biodiversityAs the marine ecosystem is highly interconnected through predator–prey relations, the direct impacts of ocean climate change have ‘knock-on’ effects through the food chain. For example, recent warmer conditions and associated shifts in plankton abundance and geographical distribution have led to reduced availability of prey fish for some seabirds, which has been strongly linked to recent poor breeding success and reduced survival rates.
Impact of climate change on marine cleanliness & safetySea-level rise will lead to more coastal flooding with impacts on coastal erosion, coastal habitats, built structures and possible threats to human life. Links between land and sea are also strongly expressed in contaminant transport (nutrients and other pollutants), as their seaward transport will be highly dependent on future climate change on land (e.g. drier summers with episodic downpours; a greater number of more severe storms).
Impact of climate change on marine commercial productivityThe impacts of climate change on the commercial services provided by our seas will be significant. Sea-level rise, coastal flooding and storms and waves will affect ports, shipping and built structures. Fishing and fish farming will be affected by temperature change and plankton availability. Rising temperatures should have positive impacts on tourism, whilst retreating Arctic sea-ice may open up new (seasonal) shipping routes.
Find out more.....Marine Climate Change Impacts websiteThe Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership is an interactive website, bringing together the accumulating body of evidence to suggest that many marine ecosystems are responding both physically and biologically to changes in regional climate. The United Kingdom Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP) brings together scientists, government, its agencies and NGOs to provide co-ordinated advice on climate change impacts around our coast and in our seas. Community climate action in the South West
The impetus of this survey was the South West Regional Assembly declaration on climate change in March 2007 and the decision to draw up a South West Climate Change Action Plan. Key findings include:
The scale and breadth of this activity shows how great is the public’s appetite for positive action on climate change. It should encourage all South West politicians to show leadership and put their weight behind a strong Climate Bill. Climate change and marine predators: some warning signalsThe impact of climate change on marine predators has been highlighted by the Whale & Dolphin Conservation Society at the UN Convention for Migratory Species, in Nairobi (23rd - 25th November 2005). The WDCS has presented a report on the impact of climate change on whales, dolphins and porpoises at a special workshop in migratory species and climate change. This report draws attention to the fact that predicting the consequences of climate change on highly mobile marine predators is extremely difficult and are only just being explored. The vulnerability of certain species was highlighted, including:
Mark Simmonds from the WDCS comments: ‘Whilst we may not know precisely how climate change may impact a vulnerable species, it makes it all the more important that other threats are addressed. In most cases climate change will only make things worse and the North Atlantic Right whale provides an important example of this. Since commercial takes on this species ended, the North Atlantic population has been struggling to survive. Ship strikes and entanglement in nets are the primary causes but loss of prey caused by climate change has now been linked to reduced reproductive success in the population and this is likely to push it more swiftly towards extinction. Generally speaking, larger populations of animals will be better able to endure climate change, making it all the more imperative that other negative impacts, including commercial takes are ended and species are encouraged to return to historical levels.’ Water resourcesAbstractions have increased since the 1970s and water resources are already under great strain in the region, particularly in the east. Over the coming century this will increase as summers become drier. As summer temperatures rise there will be a potential increase in demand for household, irrigation and industrial uses, coinciding with a potential decrease in water supply as rainfall decreases. Reduced summer rainfall will also mean that there is less water in rivers to dilute pollutants, whilst wetter winters will cause an increase in flushing of nitrates and harmful organisms into groundwater and watercourses, with consequent impacts on water treatment requirements and water quality. Wetter winters will also increase the risk of river and urban flooding: the region saw its worst floods for 60 years in 2001/02. Flooding could also increase soil erosion, sediment mobilization and land slipping as well as cause the over-stressing and backing up of sewer networks. Impact on Society and InfrastructureA changing climate will have a major impact on the way we live, the buildings we live in, how we spend our leisure time, where we holiday and how we travel.Built environmentThe built environment, including buildings, bridges, power lines, roads and railways, is already under threat in parts of the region from flooding, extreme winds and storms. Changing rainfall patterns and drier soils will lead to increased flash flooding events and more subsidence. Climatic changes will require building and development design to adapt. New buildings will need to be designed to withstand more frequent clay soil shrinkage, increased rainfall, higher temperatures and stronger winds. Increased use of water efficiency technologies will be needed to reduce water consumption, especially in summer. Milder winters will mean a reduced demand for conventional space heating. Increased solar radiation will make solar heating in winter and cooling in summer possible, but higher temperatures may lead to increased demand for cooling of buildings.Outdoor activities are likely to increase as summer seasons get longer and winters milder. This will influence holiday destinations and timings, increase walking and cycling opportunities as well as use of urban open spaces. HealthClimate change is already impacting on health. Warmer, sunnier summers are likely to encourage more outdoor leisure and lighter clothing, increasing exposure to the sun and so risks such as skin cancer. Warmer temperatures may increase the incidence of food poisoning and summer heatwaves may increase accidents for workers and cause short-term increases in mortality and ill health in the sick and in older people. Milder winters, however, are likely to reduce winter mortality and injury rates, such as falls on ice, will be reduced. Cases of malignant melanoma, the most aggressive of skin cancers, is a particular problem in the region with high mortality rates compared to England and Wales. Incidences of this cancer are high in all local authority areas in the region (with the exception of South Gloucestershire, Gloucester and the Forest of Dean), and have increased by 3-7% since the 1960s (Department of Health, 2005). Tourism and leisureTourism is vital to the South West and longer, more reliable summers and warmer winters are likely to extend the tourist season and encourage more UK tourists to holiday at home. At the same time the Mediterranean region may become less hospitable. This will have a positive impact on the economy but could result in unsustainable pressure on the local environment. Rising sea levels and flooding could threaten the existence of some beaches, coastal and riverside amenities. The region’s heritage, including gardens and historic buildings, could be threatened by both increased visitor pressure and the direct impacts of climate change. More frequent storms, subsidence, light-degradation, rain, fungal and beetle attack and even the failure of historic planting schemes, would diminish attractiveness. Archaeology in uplands could also deteriorate due to drying out in summer, whilst coastal remains could be lost with rising sea levels. Transport
Impact on the EconomyClimate change affects all aspects of life including the region’s economy. If the environment is damaged by climate change the region becomes a less attractive location in which to live and work. If transport links are congested, people will be deterred from coming to the area. Traditional businesses in food and farming may also be threatened. However, climate change may also signal new economic opportunities. Agriculture, horticulture, forestry and fisheriesAgriculture remains an important economic activity in the region, covering 80% of the land area. It is likely that land management techniques will have to change significantly. For arable farming, warmer and drier summers will lead to longer growing seasons which, with associated higher carbon dioxide levels, could result in increased growth rates and productivity. There may be greater opportunity to grow crops such as sunflowers, navy beans, sweetcorn, grapes and bio-fuels, including vegetable oils in more places, but growing, managing and marketing these will require new skills. However, reduced summer rainfall will increase the need for irrigation at a time when water is more scarce. Warmer, wetter weather in the winter could potentially increase pests and diseases that would otherwise have been killed off by a harsh winter. This may increase susceptibility to fungal diseases such as Phytopthera, more damage by green spruce aphid, and the prospect of new imported diseases taking hold. Increased winter rainfall also may exacerbate soil erosion leading to increased pollution, blocked drains and damage to rural roads. Waterlogged fields will reduce the number of days when the land can be worked - for example when manure can be spread on fields - and pollution incidences may increase. Inland fisheries are heavily dependent on salmon and trout in the region. Climate change is likely to have an adverse impact on these species, with repercussions on their contribution to the regional economy. Some coarse fisheries may also be detrimentally affected. Conversely, however, some coarse fisheries may benefit from temperature changes and there may be additional opportunities for developing specialist fisheries for those species dependent on higher temperatures. Financial servicesThe financial services industry could find its stability threatened in a number of ways. For example, insurance companies are highly vulnerable to large losses from storms, droughts and floods: warmer winters may reduce cold weather-related claims but there could be more subsidence claims in drier summers. Properties in high-risk areas, primarily floodplains and along unstable coasts, will lose value and may become uninsurable or unsaleable, resulting in losses for lending institutions. Food and drinkBoth raw materials and distribution of food and drink could be adversely affected by climate change. Cooling methods will need to be enhanced to avoid damage to produce and reduce bacterial build-up at higher temperatures. Food and drink consumption patterns will change, for example increased consumption of ice creams, cold drinks and salads in summertime. Increased visitor numbers to the region also means a larger market, particularly for local specialities. A more local perspective
Survival of UK plants & animals in a changing climate
The MONARCH report illustrates potential impacts of climate change on some of our most rare or threatened species, under different projected levels of greenhouse gas emissions to the 2080s. The report is the result of a seven-year research programme, led by Natural England in partnership with conservation bodies throughout the UK. It has been written in response to climate change - the most serious threat to biodiversity in the 21st Century. The MONARCH report highlights the need to consider biodiversity issues in all adaptation planning across the UK. Successful adaptation measures for nature conservation need decades to become effective. Key findings of the MONARCH report:The MONARCH programme studied the projected change in suitable climate for 120 rare or threatened species that are currently being conserved through the UK Biodiversity Action Plan. 32 of these were explored in detail and it was found that a majority are likely to experience changes in the location and/or extent of areas where the climate will meet their requirements:
This illustrates the urgent need to reduce habitat fragmentation and so ensure that species are able to disperse and establish in new locations as the climate changes. Changes to where species may find the climate suitable will be more severe unless greenhouse gas emissions are cut. If emissions can be reduced, the risk of extinction is reduced for those at risk of losing climatically suitable areas in Britain and Ireland. Case studiesSong Thrush - projected loss of areas where it will find suitable climate The song thrush is present throughout Britain and Ireland. Hotter, drier summers are thought to have contributed to the decline of the song thrush in the south east of its UK range because drought reduced the numbers of snails, slugs and earthworms, that it feeds on. Significant loss of suitable climate space in southern England is projected to occur later this century. Under the 2080s High greenhouse gas emission scenario the impact may be dramatic, affecting most of England, Wales and Ireland. Stag Beetle - shift in areas where it will find suitable climate This beetle is confined to southern England in the UK as it is at the northern edge of its range. However, it has historically been recorded across England as far north as Cumbria. An expansion of suitable climate space is projected across most of Britain and Ireland under the High greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Some of the existing distribution, including strongholds of the species in south east England, are projected to be lost as a hotter and drier climate develops. Greater horseshoe bat - projected gain in areas where it will find suitable climate Within Britain, the greater horseshoe bat is confined to southwest England and south and west Wales, while being absent from Ireland. Individuals have been recorded as travelling up to 180 km. Recent records show that individual bats from south Wales colonies are overwintering in north Wales so there is likely to be potential for establishment of new breeding colonies at distance. The projected extension of climate space across Britain and Ireland contrasts with the distinctly south-western distribution at present. Impact of climate change on our seasonsA Europe-wide study has provided "conclusive proof" that climate change is responsible for spring arriving earlier each year. Scientists from 17 nations examined 125,000 studies involving 561 species between 1971 and 2000, in what has been described as the world's largest study of changes in recurring natural events, such as when plants flowered. The study, published in the journal Global Change Biology, provided conclusive proof that changes to the continent's climate were affecting the timing of the seasons, the scientists said. The report does not go as far as pointing the finger of blame at human-induced climate change but it does show that there is a direct link between rising temperatures and changes to plant & animal behaviour. The results show that 78% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records were happening earlier in the year, while only 3% were significantly delayed. Horse chestnut trees, which grow all over the continent, were particularly good indicators, as they are easy to identify and have distinctive phases of leafing, flowering and producing conkers. It is now hoped that the findings will focus attention on the potential consequences of changes to the behaviour of plants and animals - such as the impacts on the food chain. Caterpillars, for example, feed on oak trees, and birds feed on the caterpillars. Unless these species remain synchronised, there could be problems for any one or more of those elements of the food web. The full paper is available to download from the journal Global Change Biology (charge applicable). Google Earth: new vision of climate changeMillions of Google Earth users around the world will be able to see how climate change could affect the planet and its people over the next century, along with viewing the loss of Antarctic ice shelves over the last 50 years. Climate Change in Our World, launched by Prime Minister Gordon Brown at the Google Zeitgeist conference today, is the product of a collaboration between Google, the UK Government, the Met Office Hadley Centre and the British Antarctic Survey. It provides two new ‘layers’, or animations, available to all users of Google Earth. One animation uses leading climate science from the UK’s Met Office Hadley Centre to show world temperatures throughout the next hundred years under medium projections of greenhouse gas emissions. It also shows stories of how people in the UK and in some of the world’s poorest countries are already being affected by changing weather patterns. The animation contains information on action that can be taken by individuals, communities, businesses and governments to tackle climate change, and highlights good work already underway. Another animation, developed by the British Antarctic Survey, shows the retreat of Antarctic ice caps since the 1950s, and features facts about climate change science and impacts in the Antarctic. The project currently provides a snapshot of some of the recent scientific information about climate change and its impacts. The partners in the project will be looking to develop these ideas further in the future, preferably with additional partners.
Climate Challenge websiteClimate Challenge is a new website that highlights the importance of talking about climate change. Climate change is one of the biggest challenges we face today. The first step towards tackling the problem is to make sure everyone understands exactly what the challenge is and the difference they could make. That's why talking about climate change is so important. We need to educate, excite and inspire others so that we can start working together to tackle climate change. The information on this site can help you understand, and tell the climate change story. It is part of the Climate Change Communication Initiative led by Defra, in partnership with the Environment Agency, the Carbon Trust, the Energy Saving Trust, the UK Climate Impacts Programme, the Department for Transport and the Department of Trade and Industry. Facilities on this website include: Understand climate change
Communicate climate change
Get involved
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Records
indicate that the world has warmed by about 0.6°C since the beginning
of the twentieth century, with about 0.4°C of this warming occurring
since the 1970s. 
click to enlarge
The
main environmental focus for the transport sector has been to reduce the
carbon emissions that reduce air quality and contribute to climate change.
Less has been done so far in terms of adaptation to protect roads and
rail infrastructures from the effects of climate change. Some towns and
cities are susceptible to periodic flooding which could increase, causing
major disruption to the transport infrastructure. Severe flooding may
again sever the main rail link near Exeter, causing major disruption to
rail transport. Railways along the coast - such as near Dawlish in Devon
- remain vulnerable to storm surges, high tides and cliff instability
while tunnels are vulnerable to flooding. Traffic congestion along the
region’s roads and motorway could also worsen if tourism increases
with warmer summers.
